The National Budget 2022:
Key Figures in the National Budget 2022
Historical archive
Published under: Solberg's Government
Publisher: Ministry of Finance
Press release | No: 71/2021 | Date: 12/10/2021
To ensure simultaneous access to information that might be market sensitive, the Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures at 8:00AM prior to the budget launch at 10:00 am. More detailed estimates will be published together with the National Budget.
The reopening of society has given a boost to the Norwegian economy. The economic crisis is now over, and large parts of the business sector expect strong growth going forward, with bottlenecks mounting in the labour market. Growth in mainland GDP in 2022 is projected at 3.8 percent, after an estimated growth of 3.9 percent this year, se table below.
Registered unemployment is declining rapidly and has now almost returned to its pre-pandemic level. The decrease is moving faster than we anticipated in the Revised National Budget in May. Still, there will be some repercussions of the pandemic also in 2022. Registered unemployment is estimated to decrease from 3.2 percent in 2021 to 2.4 percent in 2022.
Spending of oil revenue in 2022 is estimated at 322.4 billion NOK, measured by the structural non-oil fiscal deficit. This amounts to 2.6 percent of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) at the beginning of the year, down from 3.6 percent this year.
The structural non-oil fiscal deficit is reduced by 2.6 percent of GDP from 2021 to 2022 (fiscal impulse), mainly due to the termination of the extraordinary and temporary COVID-19 policy measures.
Although the 2022-budget in isolation has a moderately contractionary impact, the very expansive 2020 and 2021 national budgets continue to boost economic activity in Norway in 2022. In addition, phasing out activity restricting containment measures, has by itself a very expansionary effect on the economy. Furthermore, the increase in household savings during the crisis is now resulting in a strong demand for goods and services.
The structural non-oil deficit in 2022 will be approximately 84 billion NOK less than in 2021 and 63 billion NOK less than in 2020, calculated in 2022 NOK.
Table: Selected key figures in the National Budget 20221
|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
||
|
Mainland Norway gross domestic product |
-2,5 |
3,9 |
3,8 |
||
|
Employment, persons |
-1,3 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
||
|
Unemployment rate, registered (level) |
5,0 |
3,2 |
2,4 |
||
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, 2022 NOK billion |
385,8 |
406,8 |
322,4 |
||
|
Fiscal impulse2 |
3,8 |
0,6 |
-2,6 |
||
|
Transfer from the GPFG3 |
3,6 |
3,6 |
2,6 |
||
1 Percentage volume change from previous year, unless otherwise stated.
2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of mainland Norway trend GDP. Change from previous year in percentage points.
3 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) at the beginning of the year (2022 estimates).
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration and the Ministry of Finance.