Revised National Budget
Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2024
Press release | No: 21/2024 | Date: 14/05/2024 | Ministry of Finance
To secure equal access to information that might be market sensitive, the Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures prior to presenting the Revised National Budget at 10:45 a.m. More detailed forecasts will be published in the Revised Budget.
Activity in the Norwegian economy has been higher than projected in the National Budget last autumn, despite contractionary levels of interest rates and continued high levels of inflation. In particular the labour market has remained strong. Many people have entered the workforce and registered unemployment has remained low. There has been an increase of 135 000 in the number of employed persons from Q3 2021 to Q4 2023, mostly in the private sector. Registered unemployment has remained low at 1.9 per cent of the labour force since August, seasonally adjusted.
Inflation is slowing. Wage growth is projected to outpace inflation. This will provide households with increased spending power and is expected to contribute to gradually increased consumption and housing investment. Non-oil GDP is projected to grow by 0.9 per cent this year.
The Revised Budget for 2024 is fiscally responsible and will help safeguard the country and its people. The government builds its budget proposal on the fiscal rule. In line with this, fiscal policy should contribute to stable development of economic activity, both in the short and long term.
A new geopolitical situation requires that Norway prioritises security at home and abroad, to a greater extent than before. While remaining fiscally responsible the government proposes to significantly increase investment in defence, security and policing. The proposed revisions from the budget approved by Parliament last autumn are to a large extent related to the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global corresponds to 2.7 per cent of the value of the fund at the start of the year, as in the original budget. The structural non-oil fiscal deficit is 418.7 billion NOK. As a share of GDP for the mainland economy (non-oil GDP), the structural deficit will increase by 0.7 percentage points from 2023 to 2024.
Table: Selected key figures in the Revised National Budget 20241
|
|
2023 |
2024 |
|
Mainland Norway gross domestic product |
0.7 |
0.9
|
|
Employment, persons |
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
Unemployment rate, registered (level) |
1.8 |
2.0 |
|
Consumer price inflation (CPI) |
5.5 |
3.9 |
|
Underlying inflation (CPI-ATE) |
6.2 |
4.3 |
|
Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global, per cent2 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion |
384.9 |
418.7 |
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, share of mainland Norway trend GDP |
9.7 |
10.4 |
|
Change in structural non-oil fiscal deficit, percentage of mainland Norway trend GDP (budget indicator)3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1 Projection for 2024. Percentage volume change from previous year unless otherwise stated.
2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the fund capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.
3 Change from previous year in percentage points.
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration and the Ministry of Finance.