The National Budget 2024
Key Figures in the National Budget 2024
Press release | No: 50/2023 | Date: 06/10/2023 | Ministry of Finance
The Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures at 8 am, prior to the publication of the budget at 9 am. More detailed projections will be published in the National Budget.
Activity in the Norwegian economy is still high, even though growth has abated. Wage and price growth remain high. Going forward, we estimate that employment will remain high and unemployment low. Inflation is expected to decline, but it will take time before it returns to its 2 per cent target.
Persistently high inflation is now the key challenge facing economic policy, as it undermines the possibilities for prosperity and economic safety in people’s daily lives. The proposed budget is fiscally responsible and will avoid exerting upward pressure on interest rates. The aim is to support employment, while ensuring that inflation is allowed to come down.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a record number of refugees and high inflation have led to an increase in expenses in several areas. The Government’s priorities are good public services and support for the most vulnerable, along with security and stability. Norway will play its part in helping Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees.
Under the Government’s fiscal budget proposal for 2024, the structural non-oil deficit corresponds to 2.7 per cent of the projected value of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) at the start of next year. This is well below the fiscal rule stipulation that transfers from the fund over time should equal 3 percent. The structural deficit will increase from 9.9 per cent of trend-GDP for Mainland Norway in 2023 to 10.3 per cent in 2024. Model calculations show that the budget proposal for 2024 will have a more or less neutral effect on the level of activity in the economy next year.
Table: Key figures in the National Budget 20241
|
|
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|
GDP for mainland Norway (volume) |
3.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
|
Employment, persons |
3.9 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
|
Unemployment rate, registered (level) |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
|
CPI |
5.8 |
6.0 |
3.8 |
2.5 |
|
CPI-ATE |
3.9 |
6.4 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
|
Fund spending, per cent of the GPFG2 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
.. |
|
Non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion |
282.7 |
290.5 |
336.5 |
.. |
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion |
338.6 |
372.3 |
409.8 |
.. |
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of Mainland Norway trend GDP |
9.5 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
.. |
|
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of Mainland Norway trend GDP. Change from previous year (fiscal impulse)3 |
-1.1 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
.. |
|
Estimated contribution from the budget proposal on Mainland Norway GDP in 2024, percentage points4 |
.. |
.. |
0.0-0.1 |
.. |
¹ Percentage change from previous year, unless otherwise stated. Figures for 2023-25 are forecasts.
2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of the GPFG at the start of the year.
3 Percentage points.
4 Based on the macroeconomic models KVARTS (0.0) and NORA (0.1).The calculations must be interpreted as the effect of the budget proposal compared with a baseline where all expenditures and revenues grow in line with trend growth in the economy. The calculations take into account automatic stabilisers and budget changes for the entire public administration. The calculations also take into account that different budget items have different effects on the economy.
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration and the Ministry of Finance.